A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in universities but very few politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. Both composes two articles that aim for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the concept that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has possesses valuable insights to gain from the other's positions."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
