Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension triggered by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: positive announcements are released from various governments. Significant resources is devoted on containing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from enemy soil, a capacity provided through current data. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to engage hostile aerial threats roared overhead – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense activated: multiple launches deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely supplied through partner states. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly becomes grim resignation: possibly the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a automatic firearm engaged a drone in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its target.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: several casualties, damage and utility failures in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a need that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to replace in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from American leadership generated strong feelings, controversy and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new approach from US leadership adheres to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This trend will, certainly, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington operates on a premise well known to international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government presumes that it is impossible to force Russia to relinquish the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from believing that the situation will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing people and territory but averting a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its advantage.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: personal goals to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not move to internal issues. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to kill the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new proposals based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect specific hesitation to modify developments, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, mainly require continued Western support.
